Australia is Gradually Drying due to Man-made Causes

A new study shows that the long term decline in Australia's fall and winter rainfall is due to the rise in greenhouse gas emission and ozone depletion.

Studies in the past have highlighted that since 1970, the average rainfall in southwest of Western Australia has dropped by nearly a fifth and this was due to the climate change. In a new finding, NOAA scientists have developed a new high-resolution climate model that highlights that decline in fall and winter rainfall is due to the increase in emission of greenhouse gas and depletion of ozone layer.

"This new high-resolution climate model is able to simulate regional-scale precipitation with considerably improved accuracy compared to previous generation models," said Tom Delworth, a research scientist at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. "This model is a major step forward in our effort to improve the prediction of regional climate change, particularly involving water resources."

Using the global climate model, the researchers conducted several climate simulations to study the long term alteration in rainfall across various regions worldwide. On simulating the natural and man-made climate drivers, scientists revealed that the decline in rainfall is due to the increase in greenhouse gases, thinning the ozone. This is due to the man-made aerosol emissions. These factors were prominent among other natural causes including volcano eruption and change in sun's radiation.

The new model shows that throughout the 21^st century, there will be a continuous decline in winter rainfall. Over the southwest Australia, the drying is severe and model forecasts that there will be a 41 percent decline in average rainfall by late 21^st century, according to Phys.Org.

"Predicting potential future changes in water resources, including drought, are an immense societal challenge," said Delworth. "This new climate model will help us more accurately and quickly provide resource planners with environmental intelligence at the regional level. The study of Australian drought helps to validate this new model, and thus builds confidence in this model for ongoing studies of North American drought."

The research was documented in Nature Geoscience.