Sun's 2013 Solar Activity Peak is Weak and Disappointing

Our Sun is reaching the peak of its 11-year solar cycle, a time when it should be hurling out more solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Yet it seems as if our closest star is coming up a little short. Researchers have begun to discuss exactly why the sun has showed a disappointing lack of solar activity this year.

Every 11 years, the sun undergoes a solar maximum. This peak is characterized by an unusual number of sunspots that mar the sun's surface. Cool areas caused by intense magnetic activity, sunspots are regions that produce both solar flares and CMEs which can send billions of particles hurtling into space.

Although this peak was scheduled to occur in 2013, the lead up to it has shown a distinct lack of solar activity. That said, there have been a few solar flares and CMEs. For example, in May there were four X-class solar flares produced in quick succession. Yet the overall activity has remained largely low.

It shouldn't be all that surprising, though. In 2009, researchers at NASA predicted that the solar cycle this year would be relatively mild. In fact, they believed that the number of sunspots would be the lowest since 1928. Yet in order to examine the phenomenon a bit further, the Royal Astronomical Society asked solar scientists to give them an update on the state of the sun, according to the LA Times.

It's very possible that this year's weak solar maximum could be part of a 100-year solar cycle. Graphs going back to the 1700s reveal that there were fewer sunspots during solar maximums in the early part of the last three centuries. The latter half of the three centuries, in contrast, showed a much higher level of sunspots. What causes this potential 100-year cycle, though, is unknown.

That's not to say that this solar peak can't cause some major space weather. While categorized as weak, it's still very possible that the sun will still sling some solar flares and CMEs that could impact Earth.

"Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather," said Doubt Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, in a news release.

In 1859, a similarly weak solar cycle peak occurred. Yet it created a massive geomagnetic storm named the "Carrington Event" that produced Northern Lights that were so bright that people could read newspapers by their glow. A phenomenon like this could potentially devastate modern high-tech infrastructure, such as satellite and communications.

Currently, though, it seems like the sun is holding off on the solar flares. Whether we'll see any type of increase as the star reaches its solar maximum, is something that remains to be seen.