Nature & Environment
American West May Experience 'Megadroughts' that are the Worst in 1000 Years (VIDEO)
Catherine Griffin
First Posted: Feb 13, 2015 07:05 AM EST
The United States continues to suffer from droughts and now, scientists have found that conditions may only worsen in the future. During the second half of the 21st century, the U.S. Southwest and Great Plains will face a persistent drought that will be worse than anything in ancient or modern times.
"We are the first to do this kind of quantitative comparison between the projections and the distant past, and the story is a bit bleak," said Jason Smerdon, co-author of the new study, in a news release. "Even when selecting for the worst megadrought-dominated period, the 21st century projections make the megadroughts seem like quaint walks through the Garden of Eden.
A total of 11 of the past 14 years have been drought years in much of the American West, including California, Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona and across the Southern Plains to Texas and Oklahoma. In fact, the current drought directly affects more than 64 million people in the Southwest and Southwest Plains, and more are indirectly affected because of the impacts to agricultural regions.
For this latest study, the researchers used data from the North American Drought Atlas to represent past climate, and then applied three different measures for drought: two soil moisture measurements and varying depths, and a version of the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Then, the scientists applied 17 different climate models to analyze the future impact of rising average temperatures on the regions, and compared two different global warming scenarios.
"The surprising thing to us was really how consistent the response was over these regions, nearly regardless of what model we used or what soil moisture metric we looked at," said Benjamin Cook, one of the researchers. "It all showed this really, really significant drying."
In fact, the researchers found that the drying we may soon see will surpass any of the decades-long "megadroughts" that occurred much earlier during the past 1,000 years in terms of severity.
The findings reveal a bit more about these droughts and show how we may soon be in for quite a few of them as warming continues. These findings show the importance of managing water resources in the regions that can expect drought conditions in the future.
The findings are published in the journal Science Advances.
Want to learn more? Check out the video below, courtesy of YouTube.
For more great science stories and general news, please visit our sister site, Headlines and Global News (HNGN).
See Now:
NASA's Juno Spacecraft's Rendezvous With Jupiter's Mammoth Cyclone
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First Posted: Feb 13, 2015 07:05 AM EST
The United States continues to suffer from droughts and now, scientists have found that conditions may only worsen in the future. During the second half of the 21st century, the U.S. Southwest and Great Plains will face a persistent drought that will be worse than anything in ancient or modern times.
"We are the first to do this kind of quantitative comparison between the projections and the distant past, and the story is a bit bleak," said Jason Smerdon, co-author of the new study, in a news release. "Even when selecting for the worst megadrought-dominated period, the 21st century projections make the megadroughts seem like quaint walks through the Garden of Eden.
A total of 11 of the past 14 years have been drought years in much of the American West, including California, Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona and across the Southern Plains to Texas and Oklahoma. In fact, the current drought directly affects more than 64 million people in the Southwest and Southwest Plains, and more are indirectly affected because of the impacts to agricultural regions.
For this latest study, the researchers used data from the North American Drought Atlas to represent past climate, and then applied three different measures for drought: two soil moisture measurements and varying depths, and a version of the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Then, the scientists applied 17 different climate models to analyze the future impact of rising average temperatures on the regions, and compared two different global warming scenarios.
"The surprising thing to us was really how consistent the response was over these regions, nearly regardless of what model we used or what soil moisture metric we looked at," said Benjamin Cook, one of the researchers. "It all showed this really, really significant drying."
In fact, the researchers found that the drying we may soon see will surpass any of the decades-long "megadroughts" that occurred much earlier during the past 1,000 years in terms of severity.
The findings reveal a bit more about these droughts and show how we may soon be in for quite a few of them as warming continues. These findings show the importance of managing water resources in the regions that can expect drought conditions in the future.
The findings are published in the journal Science Advances.
Want to learn more? Check out the video below, courtesy of YouTube.
For more great science stories and general news, please visit our sister site, Headlines and Global News (HNGN).
See Now: NASA's Juno Spacecraft's Rendezvous With Jupiter's Mammoth Cyclone