Nature & Environment
Hundreds of Species in Danger of Extinction in 40 Years as Human Population Grows
Catherine Griffin
First Posted: Jun 19, 2013 02:34 PM EDT
The human population is growing by leaps and bounds. In fact, we're expected to top 11 billion in a mere century. Yet as we expand, we crowd out mammals, birds and other species. Now, scientists have calculated the risk of overpopulation, and have found that hundreds of species may be faced with extinction in a mere 40 years.
In order to actually find out how many species were being threatened by human populations, researchers utilized a model that gained fame in 2004. First made with 2000 data, this model predicted what would happen in 2010. As 2010 came and passed, the scientists were able to show that their predictions were confirmed. In this latest study, though, the scientists extended their predictions to the middle of this century.
"Our projection is based on human population density alone. It doesn't take into account climate change, industrialization or wars," said Jeffrey McKee, professor of anthropology at Ohio State and lead author of the study, in a news release. "So the actual numbers that we predict for 2050 will be very different because everything we do will exacerbate the problem."
It turns out that an average growing nation should expect at least 3.3 percent more threatened species in the next decade. That will increase to 10.8 percent of species by 2050. In addition, they found that only five nations rank higher than the United States in predicted new species threats by the middle of the century. The top of the list is the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with a predicted new threat to more than 20 species in that time frame. In contrast, 11 new species in the U.S. will be threatened with extinction.
Yet it's not all bad news. The model also suggests that nations with declining human populations will see an average reduction in threatened species--as much as 2.5 percent.
"We might be able to utilize that knowledge and use those countries to repopulate species that are native to those countries," said McKee in a news release.
While some countries may benefit, though, the vast majority will not. Species are rapidly disappearing as climate change and pollution take their toll. Add human expansion into the mixture and you have a recipe for disaster. The new findings show how crucial it is to safeguard these species as we grow and our world shrinks. Whether or not we'll succeed, though, is up to us.
The findings are published in the journal Human Ecology.
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First Posted: Jun 19, 2013 02:34 PM EDT
The human population is growing by leaps and bounds. In fact, we're expected to top 11 billion in a mere century. Yet as we expand, we crowd out mammals, birds and other species. Now, scientists have calculated the risk of overpopulation, and have found that hundreds of species may be faced with extinction in a mere 40 years.
In order to actually find out how many species were being threatened by human populations, researchers utilized a model that gained fame in 2004. First made with 2000 data, this model predicted what would happen in 2010. As 2010 came and passed, the scientists were able to show that their predictions were confirmed. In this latest study, though, the scientists extended their predictions to the middle of this century.
"Our projection is based on human population density alone. It doesn't take into account climate change, industrialization or wars," said Jeffrey McKee, professor of anthropology at Ohio State and lead author of the study, in a news release. "So the actual numbers that we predict for 2050 will be very different because everything we do will exacerbate the problem."
It turns out that an average growing nation should expect at least 3.3 percent more threatened species in the next decade. That will increase to 10.8 percent of species by 2050. In addition, they found that only five nations rank higher than the United States in predicted new species threats by the middle of the century. The top of the list is the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with a predicted new threat to more than 20 species in that time frame. In contrast, 11 new species in the U.S. will be threatened with extinction.
Yet it's not all bad news. The model also suggests that nations with declining human populations will see an average reduction in threatened species--as much as 2.5 percent.
"We might be able to utilize that knowledge and use those countries to repopulate species that are native to those countries," said McKee in a news release.
While some countries may benefit, though, the vast majority will not. Species are rapidly disappearing as climate change and pollution take their toll. Add human expansion into the mixture and you have a recipe for disaster. The new findings show how crucial it is to safeguard these species as we grow and our world shrinks. Whether or not we'll succeed, though, is up to us.
The findings are published in the journal Human Ecology.
See Now: NASA's Juno Spacecraft's Rendezvous With Jupiter's Mammoth Cyclone