New Model Predicts How Climate Change Impacts Species and Coevolution

Climate change is affecting ecosystems across the globe. While some species decline, some thrive and others adapt and remain relatively unaffected. Yet the complicated dance of all of these different systems has presented scientists with a challenge when studying how climate change will impact ecosystems in the future. Now, they've uncovered a relatively simple rule of thumb to help calculate the likely effect of climate change where species interact.

"A lot of discussion about climate change focuses on the fate of individual, iconic species, but to evaluate the effects of future environmental changes we need to account for interactions between species," said Tobin Northfield, one of the researchers, in a news release. "We need to consider how species co-evolve--how they are adapting in response to each other, as well as in response to climate change."

In order to find out the best way to predict species interactions, the scientists examined insects. The researchers argued that where species have conflicting interests (for example, when one species becomes aggressive toward another as it competes for food), their coevolving relationship is likely to reduce the effects of climate change on both species. Where species interact in a non-conflicting way, the effects of climate change are likely to be greater.

In order to better show this relationship, the researchers developed modeling tools and guidelines. These tools can potentially help scientists extrapolate from the short to longer term.

"We used simple models of competition, predation and mutualism to consider how these interactions might change over longer time periods, and how that, in turn will affect each species," said Northfield in a news release. "The nature of climate change means that we don't have years and centuries to observe changes in nature. Mathematical modeling gives us a way to calculate what the future might look like."

For example, the researchers discovered that when predators attack crop pests and benefit agriculture, such as ladybugs eating aphids, the predator and prey will both evolve in response to climate change and will reduce the effect of climate change on crop damage. Insect populations, in particular, were a good testing ground for their theory.

The findings reveal a little bit more about how species interactions will be impacted by climate change. As weather patterns shift and temperatures continue to warm, understanding these interactions and how various species might be impacted is more important than ever.

The findings are published in the journal PLOS Biology.