Devastating Chelyabinsk Meteor Strike Seven Times as Likely: Russian Fireball Threat

The Russian fireball that streaked over the skies of Chelyabinsk in February before exploding has now told scientists a little bit more about the likelihood of a similar event. It turns out that the Chelyabinsk incident is far more likely to occur again, which means that we may be seeing another meteoroid some time in the future.

The explosive impact from this meteoroid was well documented by citizen cameras. That means that scientists were able to gather a wealth of data on the object--an unusual occurrence when it comes to observing near-Earth objects (NEOs). By calibrating the video images of the event by using the position of the stars in the night sky, the researchers were able to learn a bit more about the event.

"It was important that we followed up with the many citizens who had firsthand accounts of the event and recorded incredible video while the experience was still fresh in their minds," said Olga Polpova, one of the researchers, in a news release.

In this case, the scientists calculated that the impact speed of the meteor was 42,500 mph. As it penetrated the atmosphere, it fragmented into pieces, peaking at 19 miles above the surface. That's when the meteor appeared brighter than the sun, even for people about 62 miles away. After the explosion, anywhere between 9,000 to 13,000 pounds of meteorites fell to the ground. This included one fragment that weight about 1,400 pounds and was recovered from Lake Chebarkul.

And yet this particular phenomenon may be more common in the future. NASA has also discovered that the number of similar-sized objects reaching Earth may be greater and the damage they could potentially do is also much larger than previously calculated.

"If you look at the number of impacts detected by the U.S. government sensors over the past few decades you find the impact rate of kiloton-class objects is greater than would be indicated by the telescopic surveys," said Bill Cooke, meteoroid environment office lead at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, in an interview with The Register. "Over the past few decades we've seen an impact rate about seven times greater than the current state of the telescopic surveys would indicate."

The meteoroid was also bound to break apart. The scientists discovered sock veins that were probably caused about 4.4 billion years ago. These shock veins made the fireball more susceptible to breaking apart and thus, in turn, resulted in the fragmented explosion that characterized the event.

Currently, researchers are conducting studies to better understand the origin and nature of NEOs. This, in turn, could help inform our approach to preparing for the potential discovery and deflection of an object on a collision course with the Earth.

Want to learn more about the Chelyabinsk field study? Check it out here.