Comet ISON Update: Will it Survive its Thursday Sun Bath?

Comet ISON is now only days away from our Sun, and it may not make it at this rate. NASA has announced that new data may show that the "comet of the century" could have started to break apart in a dramatic fashion. This means that we may not get the amazing light show in early December, though nothing is certain.

Currently, NASA is receiving reports that molecular emission from the comet has fallen dramatically. Meanwhile, the dust production seems to be enormous. This could potentially indicate that the nucleus of the comet has completely disrupted, releasing an enormous amount of dust while reducing emission rates. This means that the comet has essentially broken apart which, in turn, means that it likely won't be present in the skies in early December.

That's not to say that this is certain, though. Comet ISON is unusual. It's a new sungrazing comet straight from the Oort cloud, and astronomers have never seen its like before. Researchers have never before studied a comet just a few days from perihelion in this kind of detail. It's possible that the new data could be "usual" for this type of comet.

Currently, ISON is scheduled to pass through the sun's atmosphere on Nov. 28. That's when it will fly only a million kilometers above the sun's surface. The comet Encke passed by the sun in a similar fashion in 2007. That's when a coronal mass ejection (CME) struck the object, ripping off its tail during the encounter. It's possible that a similar solar storm could also impact comet ISON, though we'll have to see once it passes perihelion.

"I would absolutely love to see Comet ISON get hit by a big CME," said Karl Battams, an astronomer at the Naval Research Lab, in a NASA news release. "It won't hurt the comet, but it would give us a chance to study extreme interactions with the comet's tail."

If Comet ISON does survive, though, we may see history in the making. The comet will be spectacularly bright and should sport a long, dusty tail that could stretch far across the night sky. Northern Hemisphere observers will have the best view and should be able to enjoy the spectacle for weeks as the comet slowly recedes away. Of course, the comet will have to survive the Sun first.

Want to learn more about Comet ISON? Check out the observing campaign here.