Antarctic Ice Shelves May Completely Disappear in the Next 200 Years, Study Claims

Scientists claim that the continued warming will cause the floating ice shelves in Antarctica to disappear within the next 200 years.

In a latest report, researchers at Utrecht University in collaboration with the British Antarctic Survey claim that within the next 200 years, the freely floating ice shelves in the Antarctica may completely disappear due to the effects of warming on the snow cover. The melting ice shelves collapse into the ocean causing the sea levels to rise. Through this study the researchers state that these disappearing ice shelves can be saved by reduction in the greenhouse gas emission.

The study was funded by the European Union's four-year Ice2Sea project.

The study, led by Dr Peter Kuipers Munneke, the paper's lead author, looked at two different events that occurred in the north of the Antarctic Peninsula (Larsen A and B). Teo floating ice shelves suddenly collapsed in 1995 and 2002. The researcher suspect that these two events were a result of the disappearance of the snow layer covering the ice shelves

"This was a spectacular event, especially when you imagine the size of these ice shelves, which are several hundreds of metres thick, and have been in place for over 10,000 years," said Dr Munneke.

Disappearance of the snow was a crucial factor in the collapse of the ice shelf. The researchers believe that the snow layers help in regulating the effect of the melting lake water on the ice shelves. Because only when the snow layer above the ice shelves is thick and cold the meltwater can again seep into the snow and refreeze. But when the snow layer on the top melts due to the rapid warming, the meltwater builds up and the snow layers lessen.

Since the meltwater cannot refreeze they form lakes on the surface of the ice shelves. This water on the ice shelves seeps through the cracks and faults within the ice shelves causing them to widen to such a great extent that the entire ice shelves crumble and break up.

One they break apart these ice shelves do not provide any resistance to the flow of the glaciers causing to the rise in the sea level.

Using the two different climate events, they calculated the loss in snow and revealed that the many more ice shelves could completely disappear in the next 200 years. According to Prof. David Vaughan, a team member of the study, "We've been observing ice-shelf retreat around the Antarctic Peninsula since the early 1990s, but for the first time this model provides strong basis for the prediction of future changes, which is a major step forward in understanding future sea-level changes."

Dr Kuipers Munnekke concludes saying, "If we continue to burn fossil fuels at the current rate, almost all ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula will be under threat of collapse in the next 200 years. Only the two largest ones seem to be safe. Even in the much colder eastern part of Antarctica, some ice shelves could disintegrate. If we manage to keep global warming below the European Union target of 2oC, more than half of the ice shelves could be saved, compared to no action taken on emissions reductions."

The report was documented in the Journal of Glaciology.