Global Warming Could Affect Distribution of Plant Species by 2100

In a new finding, climate researchers claim that the rapid rate of global warming will affect the spread of plant species by the end of the century.

A team of international researchers claim that rise in temperatures would lead to a change in nearly half of the global land area by the end of the century. According to the study led by Song Feng, atmospheric scientist at the University of Arkansas, if there is a 3-10 degree rise in Celsius temperature by the year 2100, then the spread of the plant species on nearly 46.3 percent of the global land area will be changed.

This scenario proposed by the climate scientists was adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

"Climates are associated with certain types of vegetation," Feng said in a statement. "If the surface continues to get warmer, certain native species may no longer grow well in their climate, especially in higher latitudes. They will give their territory to other species. That is the most likely scenario."

In this study the researchers looked at the shift in the climate system around the globe. They did this by using the Koppen-Trewartha climate classification. In this model the native vegetation is taken as the best expression of climate.

They examined the climate observations produced by 20 global climate models based on climate changes seen from 1900-2100. These climate models were a part of the World Climate Research Programme.

Most climate scientists called this scenario as 'business as usual'. This is because they assume that no strict measures will be adopted to lower the emission of the greenhouse gases that is warming the planet.

"Changes in precipitation played a slightly more important role in causing shifts of climate type during the 20th century. However, the projected warming plays an increasingly important role and dominates shifts in climate type when the warming becomes more pronounced in the 21st century," said Feng, an assistant professor of geosciences in the J. William Fulbright College of Arts and Sciences.

He states that the major changes denote that the global land area is undergoing a vegetation type transformation, in which the distribution of species is affected. The study highlights the rising precipitation in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere and also lower precipitation in the southwestern North America.

Based on the alterations in the precipitation and temperature, the climate type would change from warmer to drier climate. The Polar regions would shrink and the temperate, dry climate types will spread out.

The finding was published in the journal, Global and Planetary Change.