Climate Change will not Reduce Winter Deaths

A recent study suggests that climate change is unlikely to reduce the U.K.'s excess winter death rate.

After researchers analyzed data from the past 60 years, they decided to look at how the winter death rate can change over time, and what factors might influence this.

They discovered that from 1951 to 1971, the number of cold days was more strongly liked to death rates. Yet in 1971 to 1991, both the number of cold days and flu activity were to blame for an increased number of deaths. From 1991 to 2011, flu activity alone was the main cause in year to year variation in winter mortality.

"We've shown that the number of cold days in a winter no longer explains its number of excess deaths. Instead, the main cause of year to year variation in winter mortality in recent decades has been flu," said lead researcher Dr. Philip Staddon, via a press release.

For the study, researchers looked to reduce the link between the number of cold days and deaths occurring in the winter. They believed the problem might have been explained by a combination of several different factors, including health care, income, housing and a greater awareness of the risk of the cold.

"Both policy makers and health professionals have, for some time, assumed that a potential benefit from climate change will be a reduction in deaths seen over winter. We've shown that this is unlikely to be the case," added Staddon, via the release. "flu activity alone was the main cause in year to year variation in winter mortality.Efforts to combat winter mortality due to cold spells should not be lessened, and those against flu and flu-like illnesses should also be maintained."

"Climate change appears unlikely to lower winter death rates," Co-author, Prof Hugh Montgomery of UCL. "Indeed, it may substantially increase them by driving extreme weather events and greater variation in winter temperatures. Action must be taken to prevent this happening."

More information regarding the study can be found via the journal Nature Climate Change.