Intense Hurricanes May be Predicted with New Storm Research

Hurricanes can result in massive damages and loss of life. Predicting these severe storms, though, can be difficult. While we can generally track where a hurricane will wind up within a "cone of uncertainty," scientists still have difficulty predicting exactly how strong a hurricane will be. That's why scientists have taken a closer look when it comes to understanding the strength of these storms.

"The air-water interface-whether it had significant waves or significant spray-is a big factor in storm intensity," said Alex Soloviev, one of the researchers, in a news release. "Hurricanes gain heat energy through the interface and they lose mechanical energy at the interface."

In order to better understand hurricane intensity, the researchers used a computational fluid dynamics model to simulate microstructure of the air-sea interface under hurricane force winds. Then, they verified the computer-generated results by conducting experiments in a tank where they simulated wind speed and ocean surface conditions found during hurricanes.

In the end, the researchers found that under hurricane force wind, the air-water interface produced projectiles that fragmented into sub millimeter scale water droplets. This process is known from some engineering applications. Then, the researchers examined how changes in microphysics of the air-sea interface can make a storm grow or weaken in intensity; they found that when a storm exceeded a Category 1 threshold, the ocean surface became more "slippery."

That's not all that the researchers found. Once the wind exceeded Cat 3 hurricane force, the "slippery" effect disappeared and then was completely gone at Cat 5. This means that some hurricanes may rapidly intensify to Cat 3 and then stay in this "comfortable" zone.

The findings reveal a bit more about how hurricanes work which could help predict hurricane intensity in the future.

"We've got more work to do, but this is a great first step," said Soloviev. "But remember, no matter how good we get in predicting a storm's intensity, people in the path need to prepare accordingly regardless of what Category it is-that's most important."

The findings are published in the journal Scientific Reports.