Air Traffic Growth May Outpace Carbon Reduction Strategies: Urgent Action Needed

We're in a bit of trouble when it comes to reducing the amount of carbon we're releasing. Scientists have found that carbon reduction efforts in the airline industry will be outweighed by growth in air-traffic, even if the strictest mitigation measures are implemented.

"There is little doubt that increasing demands for air travel will continue for the foreseeable future," said John Preston, co-author of the new study, in a news release. "As a result, civil aviation is going to become an increasingly significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions."

In order to better understand how best to lower the amount of carbon released by the airline industry, the researchers calculated the ticket price increase necessary to drive down demand. They found that the increase would be enough to value CO2 emissions at up to one hundred times the amount of current valuations.

"This would translate to a yearly 1.4 percent increase on ticket prices, breaking the trend of increasing lower airfares," said Matt Grote, co-author of the study. "The price of domestic tickets has dropped by 1.3 percent a year between 1979 and 2012, and international fares have fallen by .5 percent per annum between 1990 and 2012."

In fact, researchers found that any move to suppress demand would likely meet with resistance from the airline industry and national governments. Instead, a global regulator is urgently needed to enforce CO2 emission reduction measures.

"Some mitigation measures can be left to the aviation sector to resolve," said Ian Williams, Head of the Center for Environmental Science at the University of Southhampton. "For example, the industry will continue to seek improvements to fuel efficiency as this will reduce costs. However, other essential measures, such as securing international agreements, setting action plans, regulations and carbon standards will require political leadership at a global level."

The findings reveal the importance of mitigation efforts in the face of increasing air traffic. As carbon emissions increase, our climate continues to warm; learning the best ways to help slow this trend is crucial for the future of our global environment.

The findings are published in the journal Atmospheric Environment.