Istanbul May be at Risk for a Major Earthquake in the Future

It turns out that the coast of Istanbul may be in for a major earthquake in the future. Scientists have examined different segments of the North Anatolian Fault, one of the most energetic earthquake zones in the world, and have found that tension may be building along this fault.

When a segment of a major fault line becomes quiet, it can either mean that the "seismic gap" is simply inactive, or that the segment may be a source of potential earthquakes as it quietly builds tension. That's why researchers decided to examine the North Anatolian Fault, looking at 20 years of GPS data along the fault. More specifically, the scientists took data along the fault from about 100 GPS locations, including stations where data are collected continuously. This allowed them to determine that the next large earthquake to strike the region will likely occur along a seismic gap between the Sea of Marmara, which is just five miles west of Istanbul.

"Istanbul is a large city, and many of the buildings are very old and not built to the highest modern standards compared to, say, southern California," said Michael Floyd, one of the researchers, in a news release. "From an earthquake scientist's perspective, this is a hotspot for potential seismic hazards."

In fact, the researchers were able to tell that the next quake is likely to be magnitude 7 or larger, which could be devastating. That said, these latest findings do give local people the chance to prepare before such an earthquake occurs.

"Earthquakes are not regular or predictable," said Floyd. "They're far more random over the long run, and you can go many lifetimes without experiencing one. But it only takes on to affect many lives. In a location like Istanbul that is known to be subject to large earthquakes, it comes back to the message: Always be prepared."