Scientists Examine Worst Case Scenario for Rising Sea Levels

As ice sheets melt and sea levels rise, it's more important than ever to accurately estimate how high these levels will be. Now, scientists have come up with a model that forecasts the worst case scenario when it comes to rising sea levels.

The report of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013 was based on the best available estimates of future sea levels, but the panel wasn't able to come up with an upper limit for sea level rise within this century.  That's why scientists decided to take a closer look.

"We wanted to try to calculate an upper limit for the rise in sea level and the biggest question is the melting of the ice sheets and how quickly this will happen," said Aslak Grinsted, one of the researchers, in a news release. "The IPCC restricted their projections to only using results basedo n models of each process that contributes to sea level. But the greatest uncertainty in assessing the evolution of sea levels is that ice sheet models have only a limited ability to capture the key driving forces in the dynamics of the ice sheets in relation to climatic impact."

In this case, the researchers worked out new calculations. They examined the two, large ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica in addition to their glaciers. The scientists combined the IPCC numbers with published data about the expectations within the ice-sheet expert community for the evolution in parts of Antarctica.

"We have created a picture of the probable limits for how much global sea levels will rise in this century," said Aslak Grinsted, one of the researchers. "Our calculations show that the seas will likely rise around 80 cm. An increase of more than 180 cm has a likelihood of less than five percent. We find that a rise in sea levels of more than two meters is improbable."

The findings reveal what to expect when it comes to rising sea levels. This can allow coastal cities and communities to better prepare, especially as our climate continues to shift.

The findings are published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.