Ebola Epidemic Outbreak in Africa May Become Worse Without International Aid

While the Ebola virus epidemic continues to remain on the radar, scientists are examining how it might spread in the coming weeks and months. Now, researchers have announced that the spread in Africa will likely become worse unless international commitments are significantly increased.

In order to better understand the spread of the virus, scientists developed a mathematical transmission model of the viral disease. Then, they applied the model to Liberia's most populous county, Montserrado. In the end, they found that tens of thousands of new Ebola cases, and deaths, are likely by Dec. 15 if the epidemic continues on its present course.

The model projects as many as 170,996 total reported and unreported cases of the disease. This represents 12 percent of the overall population of some 1.38 million people. In addition, the model calculates 90,122 deaths in Montserrado alone by Dec. 15. Of these, the authors estimate 42,669 cases and 27,175 deaths will have been reported by that time.

"Our predictions highlight the rapidly closing window of opportunity for controlling the outbreak and averting a catastrophic toll of new Ebola cases and deaths in the coming months," said Alison Galvani, one of the paper's senior authors, in a news release. "Although we might still be within the midst of what will ultimately be viewed as the early phase of the current outbreak, the possibility of averting calamitous repercussions from an initially delayed and insufficient response is quickly eroding."

The model doesn't mean that this will actually occur, though. With prevention efforts, Ebola can be contained and this type of worst-case crisis averted. Additional Ebola treatment center beds, increased detection rates and more protective kits in households could help prevent the spread of this disease.

So far, there have been approximately 9,000 reported cases of Ebola and 4,500 deaths since the latest outbreak began in Dec. 2013.

"The current global health strategy is woefully inadequate to stop the current volatile Ebola epidemic," said Frederick Altice, co-author of the new study. "At a minimum, capable logisticians are needed to construct a sufficient number of Ebola treatment units in order to avoid the unnecessary deaths of tends, if not hundreds, of thousands of people."

The findings are published in the journal Lancet Infectious Diseases.