Math Model Helps Predict Suicide Risk Of Soldiers

A new screening system may be successful in predicting soldier's suicide risk.

Researchers used a computer system that takes numerous factors into account, including military enlistement age, rank, access to weapons and history of run-ins with leadership. Furthermore, models were used to help predict suicide risk that relied heavily on self-reports and potential predictions of power.

For the study, researchers used the screening system to examine the medical records of 40,820 soldiers who had been hospitalized between 2004 and 2009 due to a mental health issue. In order to determine if the soldiers had the highest suicide risk, the team tested and retested more than 300 factors.

Findings revealed that about five percent of the same involved in the study were at high-risk, while other soldiers were about 15 times more likely to commit suicide within the year after being discharged.

The highest-risk group included 36 suicides, with a remaining group of 32 suicides. Some of the factors were also linked to a higher risk of suicide than previously thought, including severe traumatic injury and a history of using weapons. Since the system accounts for factors related to the military, researchers stated that it could be useful in predicting suicide risk among civilians.

"According to their estimate, we could save four lives for every hundred people we treated," Lt. Gen. Eric B. Schoomaker, a former surgeon general of the Army and a professor of military and emergency medicine at the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences in Bethesda, MD, said. "This would be unparalleled, compared to almost any other intervention we could make in medicine. This study begins to show the positive effects big data can have, when combined with administrative health records."

More information regarding the findings can be seen via the JAMA Psychiatry.