How to Avoid Ecosystem Collapse: Scientists Study Tipping Points

Ecosystems across the globe are in danger--from coral reefs to prairie grasslands. In fact, these ecosystems are susceptible to sudden collapse due to seemingly minor events. Now, scientists have taken a closer look at these collapses in an effort to prevent them.

"In a sea of tipping points, identifying, anticipating and reacting to sudden ecosystem changes will be critical as we seek to maintain the delivery of the goods and services from our oceans," said Phil Levin, co-author of the new study, in a news release .

In order to better understand tipping points and ecosystem reactions, the researchers evaluated 51 case studies around the globe. They found that successful management of systems with known tipping points depended strongly on three factors: consistent monitoring, explicit incorporation of tipping points data into management actions and management at small geographic scales.

"Managers who use tipping points science are achieving positive results for virtually every kind of ecosystem," said Ashley Erickson, co-author of the new study. "The findings of our study can help resource managers focus and prioritize their efforts."

In another study, the researchers demonstrated how to adapt NOAA's widely used Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (IEA) framework for marine ecosystems were tipping points are a concern. This risk-analysis based approach helped managers determine the likelihood that an ecosystem will cross a threshold. The researchers also used a comprehensive global dataset to identify three distinct and stable regimes of Hawaiian Archipelago reef ecosystems: hard corals, turf algae or macroalgae.

"By quantifying tipping points this study offers tangible targets for just how much those stressors need to be reduced to avoid regime shifts in healthy reefs and restore those already in decline," said Jean-Baptiste Jouffray."

The findings are published in three articles in the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Biological Science.