Arctic Sea Ice May Drastically Impact Polar Bears by the End of the 21st Century

Polar bears may be in trouble as ice continues to melt. Scientists have taken a closer look at the impacts that the shifts in the timing and duration of ice cover may have on this charismatic animals and have found that it's possible that polar bears may face dire consequences before the end of the 21^st century.

Sea ice extent across the Arctic is in decline. This, in turn, alters physical characteristics of marine ecosystems. Since polar bears rely on these ecosystems, they're vulnerable to these changes, especially when it comes to hunting viable food sources.

In order to better understand how polar bears might be impacted, the scientists examined sea ice projections from 2006 to 2100. In addition, they looked at the metrics developed from polar bear energetics modeling in order to understanding the conservation challenges for polar bears facing habitat loss.

What did they find? Shifts away from multiyear ice to annual ice cover throughout the region, as well as lengthening ice-free periods, may become critical for polar bears before the end of the 21^st century with current projected warming. In fact, each polar bear population in the Archipelago may undergo two to five months of ice-free conditions.

Ice-free conditions means several things for polar bears. Because they rely on the ice for hunting calorie-rich seals, the polar bears may face starvation. In addition, they could also face reproductive failure across the entire Archipelago by the year 2100.

"We predict that nearly one-tenth of the world's polar bear habitat, as much as one-quarter of the global population, may undergo significant habitat loss under business-as-usual climate projections," said Stephen Hamilton, one of the researchers, in a news release.

The findings reveal a bit more about what might happen to polar bears in the future. This, in turn, shows conservationists where they should focus their efforts.

The findings are published in the journal PLOS One.