Is The Drug Overdose Epidemic Ending?

Recent findings published in the journal Injury Epidemiology show that the drug overdose epidemic may soon be ending. Researchers at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health studied smallpox in the mid-1800s and discovered that the rate and duration of the epidemic's rise was also mirrored in its decline.

With British epidemiologist's William Farr's law, researchers project that the drug overdose epidemic will peak at about 50,000 annual deaths in 2017 before declining to a non-epidemic state of approximately 6,000 deaths in the year 2017.

"To some extent, drug use is a social behavior and has the potential to spread like a contagious disease among individuals in a network," said Salima Darakjy, a doctoral student in Epidemiology and the study's first author, in a news release.

Though researchers believe that overdose rates have already slowed, tightening rules on painkillers have led some to switch to harsher options, such as heroin.

On the other hand, the epidemic of drug overdoses--like most epidemics--won't end by itself. Public health efforts must continue even as the epidemic wanes. "A decline in overdose deaths shouldn't be used as justification to pull back," added Guohua Li, MD, DrPH, professor of Epidemiology and director of the Center for Injury Prevention at the Mailman School. "That would be wrong. If there is no intervention then the epidemic will last much longer."

The researchers' projections, which use National Center for Health Statistics data, assume continued public health resources to prevent overdoses. Congress has committed $20 million in 2015, a slight increase over 2014.

"If the epidemic of drug overdoses is indeed waning," the researchers concluded, "it may imply that the intensified efforts in recent years, such as enhanced prescription drug monitoring, are working and should be continued."

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