Renewable Resources are Reaching Their Limits Worldwide

Renewable resources may have finally reached their limits. Scientists have analyzed the production and extraction rates of 27 global renewable and non-renewable resources and have found that for 18 renewable resources, the annual growth rate reached its peak around 2006.

The term "peak" in the context of resource use was popularized in the mid-1970s. After a peak occurs, it's estimated that a decline follows. In this case, the researchers used a dataset of more than 25 resources and made limited assumptions, relying on computer power to extract patterns from the database.

The scientists analyzed renewable resources that included maize, rice, wheat or soya, which represent about 45 percent of the global calorie intake. In addition, they looked at animal products, such as fish, meat, milk and eggs. In the end, they found not only that 20 resources had a peak-year, but that for 16 of the 20 resources with a peak-year, the peak-year lay between 1988 and 2008.

Due to the rising population and change in diet in some regions of the world, the demand for renewable resources has increased, which also means that there is pressure to produce as much food as possible. These findings can also be illustrated in other aspects of resource use; for example, the highest rate of increase in the cultivation of arable land was in the 1950s, and the human-made peak in irrigation areas followed in the 1970s.

"Experts see opportunities for further increases in agricultural yield of about one to two percent per year due to better breeding techniques and genetically modified organisms," said Ralf Seppelt, one of the researchers, in a news release. Unfortunately, after that, it will be tight. "The global community needs to accept that renewable raw materials are also reaching their yield limits worldwide."

The findings are published in the journal Ecology and Society.

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