SMAP May Improve Weather Forecasts by Watching Earth's Wet Soil

There may be a new way to improve weather forecasts. Scientists have found that the key to a better prediction may actually lie within examining the soil.

Precipitation and temperature are the part of every weather forecast. Precipitation comes from clouds, clouds are formed of airborne water vapor, and vapor comes from evaporating soil moisture. This means that soil moisture, in particular, governs precipitation.

"Better soil moisture observations lead to better land-atmosphere interaction in weather forecasting models and ultimately to a better prediction of temperature and precipitation," said Michael Ek, one of the researchers, in a news release. "Weather models need good initial observations of land surface, or you're starting from the wrong place."

In this case, the researchers are turning to SMAP, known as the Soil Moisture Active Passive mission. Scheduled to launch on Jan. 29, SMAP will collect the most accurate and highest-resolution soil moisture measurements ever made from a satellite.

That's not to say that forecasts will improve automatically once SMAP starts collecting data. Since closely spaced global soil moisture measurements have never existed before, the mathematical models used in weather forecasting are not configured to include them directly. This means it will be some time before scientists collect enough data to create accurate models.

"The numerical weather prediction centers are adapting to the new availability of soil moisture information and thinking of ways they can exploit it," said Wade Crow, one of the researchers. "It will be really exciting to see what they find."

SMAP could be huge for future weather predictions. With more accurate forecasts, people can better prepare for storms and other conditions that could impact agriculture and their daily lives.

For more information about SMAP, visit NASA's website.

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