Satellite Explosion May Create Hazardous Space Debris Risk for Spacecraft

The U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program F13 satellite recently exploded in orbit. Now, scientists are worried that the debris could pose a risk to other orbiters.

When the satellite exploded in orbit on 3 Feb. 2015, it produced over an estimated 100 pieces of space debris. Afterward, researchers assessed how debris caused by the explosion might impact their spacecraft and decided that it would pose little risk to their missions.

However, scientists have now researched the risks to a wide range of space missions, coming from smaller pieces of debris created by the explosion that cannot be detected using radar based on the ground. Because they detected 100 new catalogued objects, which suggest that more than 50,000 small fragments larger than 1 mm were created.

"The fragments from the explosion spread around the Earth forming a band, which can be crossed by spacecraft with orbits that are quite different from the one of DMSP-F13," said Francesca Letizia, one of the researchers, in a news release.

In order to better understand the debris spread, the researchers developed a new technique called CiELO (debris Cloud Evolution in Low Orbits) in order to assess the collision risk to space missions from small-sized debris. They then produced a collision probability map showing a peak in the risk at altitudes just below the location of the explosion. This map was created by treating the debris cloud produced by the explosion as a fluid, whose density changes under the effect of atmospheric drag.

"This map can be used with a database of spacecraft or space debris objects to identify the targets that are most exposed," said Letizia. "For example, in the map we show the top ten spacecraft at risk from the fragments generated by the explosion of DMSP-F13 according to our model. They are mainly U.S. and Russian satellites in sun-synchronous or polar orbits."

The findings are published in the Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics.

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