Rogue Waves May Not be as Unpredictable as Previously Thought

Rogue waves can be dangerous. These sometimes-towering waves can swamp ships and cause havoc. But could these rare events be predicted? A new comparative analysis of rogue waves reveals that these waves are not entirely unpredictable.

The origins of rogue waves are still disputed. In addition, it's unclear whether or not a rogue wave can be predicted. Do characteristic patterns exist that herald the creation and impact of a rogue wave? Unfortunately, there are only a few recordings of these freak waves, which makes studying them difficult.

In this latest study, the researchers conducted a statistical analysis of data in three different physical systems. Then they determined the predictability and determinism in the respective system. This analysis included data from the famous New Year's Wave, which hit the Draupner platform on Jan. 1, 1995.

So what did they find? It turns out that rogue events appear to be very much predictable in certain systems, yet are completely stochastic and therefore unpredictable in others. In other words, rogue wave statistics currently don't allow for any predictability. However it's not true that rogue events appear out of nowhere and then disappear without a trace. Instead, ocean waves play a role.

The findings reveal that more data needs to be collected. That said, rogue waves could potentially be predicted a bit more easily by watching ocean waves. However, practical predictions are still far away and may only enable a last-second warning of these massive waves.

The findings are published in the journal Physical Review Letters.

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