World Population to Surge to 11 Billion by 2100 as Fertility Increases in Africa

First Posted: Aug 11, 2015 08:45 AM EDT

The world's population is climbing higher and higher over time. Now, the United Nations (UN) Population Division has announced that the population is likely to surpass 11 billion in 2100.

Currently, the world's population is about 7.3 billion and growing each day. The primary driver of global population is actually a projected increase in the population of Africa, which currently holds 1.2 billion people. In the coming years, though, the continent is expected to have an increase to somewhere between 3.4 billion and 5.6 billion people by the end of this century.

So what's causing this growth? Studies show that Africa's growth is due to persistent high levels of fertility and the recent slowdown in the rate of fertility decline. The total fertility rates (TFR) have been declining in Africa over the past decade, but have been doing so at roughly one-quarter of the rate at which it declined in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean in the 1970s.

In fact, in some African countries the TFR decline appears to have stalled. For example, in Nigeria, the high fertility rate would result in a more than fourfold projected increase in total population by 2100 from 182 million to 752 million people. Although there is considerable uncertainty about these future trends, there's a 90 percent chance that Nigeria's population will exceed 439 million people in 2100, which is nearly 2.5 times its current size.

With that said, there are declines. For example, in the United States the current median age of the population is 38 years of age; however, in 2100, this age is expected to increase to 44.7 years. In addition, the potential support ratio, which is equal to the number of people aged 20 to 64 divided by the number of people aged 65 or over, is expected to decline from 4.0 to 1.9.

The latest findings have important policy implications for national governments. Rapid population growth can exacerbate existing problems, which means that governments should step in with programs that may help lower fertility rates.

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