Space Weather Forecast: Minor Sun Eruption Could Hit Earth on Weekend

The sun ejected hot gas in two coronal mass ejections (CME) on February 5, 2013 that could have reached Earth, according to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. This triggered a watch status on Friday, when some of the weak effects could have been felt on Earth. Today's research instruments in space and on Earth, combined with computer modelling, enable precise solar weather forecasts like this.

Experimental NASA research models are based on observation data from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and ESA/NASA's Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, and show that the first CME began at 7 p.m. EST and left the sun at speeds of around 750 miles per second. The second CME began at 10:36 p.m. EST and left the sun at speeds of around 350 miles per second. The scientists say that in the past, comparable CMEs in speed and direction have been harmless.

CMEs are a solar phenomenon that can send solar particles into space that reach Earth one to three days later, and different from solar flares. Earth-directed CMEs can for example cause a space weather phenomenon called a geomagnetic storm, which occurs when they connect with the outside of the Earth's magnetic envelope, the magnetosphere, for an extended period of time. In the past, CMEs at this strength have had little effect. They may cause auroras near the poles but are unlikely to disrupt electrical systems on Earth or interfere with GPS or satellite-based communications systems.

(NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts, alerts, watches and warnings.)