Climate Change Could Worsen Hurricane Storm Surge: Fearsome Storms on the Rise

Hurricanes are always bad news. They push ashore with howling winds and flooding rains that can swamp coastal towns and cities. Yet perhaps more deadly are the storm surges which can cover entire houses with water. Unfortunately, it seems that hurricanes are on the rise and will only grow more frequent as the planet continues to warm, according to a new study.

The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, combined different models in order to study the question of how climate changed affected hurricane activity. One model focused on sea surface temperature in the main region of the Atlantic where hurricanes form. The other model focused on the difference in temperature between the region where hurricanes form and tropical ocean temperatures. In particular, the researchers noted that for every degree Celsius (1.8 degree Fahrenheit) of warming, there was a twofold to sevenfold increase in the type of storm surge that was seen when Hurricane Katrina struck Louisiana in 2005.

Storm surge is usually the biggest killer from hurricanes, and often causes the most destruction. Hurricane Katrina, for example, killed more than 1,800 people and caused $125 billion worth of damage; most of it came from the hurricane's storm surge. Hurricane Sandy killed dozens and caused $50 billion worth of damage--also mostly caused by storm surge.

In all, the study showed that there will be a tenfold increase in the frequency of storm surges if the climate becomes just 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit warmer. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said that under one of the best case scenarios, Earth will warm anywhere between 2.0 to 5.2 degrees by the end of the century. This could mean a Katrina-like storm every other year.

Yet the study itself may be slightly misleading. According to NBC News, an atmospheric scientist named Judith Curry pointed out that the tide gauge dataset in the paper is inferior to the standard dataset of landfalling hurricanes maintained by the National Hurricane Center. This makes using the tide gauge to make statistical projections shaky at best.

There's no doubt that the debate about whether or not hurricanes will become more fearsome in the future will continue. However, the topic should certainly receive more research. Learning more about how to prepare for the possibility of increasing massive storms may help save money and lives.