Global Warming Slowdown Reveals Extreme Predictions Not as Likely for Earth's Climate

Is global warming slowing down? To some extent, it is. Scientists have revealed that the most extreme predictions of global warming are not likely to happen-at least in the short term. Yet the Earth is still likely to see a temperature rise that's double that of what is considered to be safe.

Since 1998 there has been an unexplained "standstill in the heating of Earth's atmosphere, according to BBC News. This particular slowdown has been examined for the past several years, and it has even prompted officials to lower their five-year temperature forecast. This particular slowdown is puzzling, though. Greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise, and have left scientists wondering why Earth is simply not warmer.

Yet this latest study reveals that a much longer "pause" would be needed before proving that the world was not warming, according to The Guardian. In order to examine this slower rate of global warmer, researchers examined climate models and recent temperatures.  They found that the answer to the slower warming lay within the world's oceans.

Water has the ability to absorb both heat and gas, trapping it from the atmosphere and acting as a natural sink. Many climate scientists don't fully factor this effect into their models, which explains why temperatures haven't warmed as much as predicted. In fact, most of the recent warming has been absorbed by the oceans; yet once the seas become warm enough, it's likely that our atmosphere will begin warming far more rapidly.

Even so, the study did point to the fact that most climate change models are still relatively accurate, though it did note that climate scientists should be careful when estimating future temperatures. Jochem Marotzke, professor at the Max Panck Institute for Meteorology and co-author of the paper, said in an interview with The Guardian, "It is important not to over-interpret a single decade, given what we know, and don't know, about natural climate variability. Over the past decade, the world as a whole has continued to warm but the warming is mostly in the subsurface oceans rather than at the surface."

Despite the fact that this warming may be slower than predicted, it's already affecting nations and areas across the globe. The Arctic ice sheet and glaciers are experiencing unprecedented rates of melting, which have contributed to global sea rise. In fact, island nations such as Grenada are already experiencing the effects of this phenomenon as their coastlines are rapidly washed away.

So far, temperatures have risen by about 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit since the Industrial Revolution. The tipping point of 2 degrees Celsius is widely viewed as the threshold to dangerous changes, such as more floods, heat waves and rising sea levels.

"By assuming that this behavior will continue, (the scientists) calculate that the climate will warm about 20 percent more slowly than previously expected, although over the long term it may just as bad, since eventually the ocean will stop taking up heat," said Steven Sherwood of the University of New South Wales who was not involved in the study, in an interview with The Huffington Post.

While we may not see temperatures skyrocket in the future, we will continue to see the effects of this warming--albeit a bit slower than we once expected.

The findings are published in the journal Nature Geoscience.