Earthquakes Mapped? Scientists Reveal New Method for Possible Prediction

Earthquakes can cause some severe damage to infrastructure. Yet most impacts on buildings are mainly due to the existing shear waves which transfer their energy during an earthquake to houses. Now, scientists have shown that it's possible to map complex shear wave velocity structures almost in real time, which could allow scientists to better predict and prepare for earthquakes.

Central Asia in particular suffers greatly from earthquakes. The collision of the continental plates of India and Eurasia, which cause the high mountain ranges, also create devastating consequences for the surrounding areas. Detailed knowledge of the landform and near-surface underground structure is an important part of assessing local seismic hazards. This new method that the researchers developed could help with that. It's based on ambient seismic noise recordings and analyses.

"We use small, hardly noticeable amplitude ground motions as well as anthropogenic ground vibrations," said Marco Pilz, one of the researchers, in a news release. "With the help of these small signals we can obtain detailed images of the shallow seismic velocity structure."

This technique has actually already been tested. Many regions of Central Asia are threatened by landslides. Since the shear wave velocity usually drops greatly before a landslide slip, the method allowed researchers to monitor changes in landslide prone areas in almost real time.

"What is new about our method is the direct calculation of the shear wave velocity," said Pilz. "Moreover, we are working on a local, small-scale level-compared to many other studies."

The findings could have major implications for future earthquake research. In fact, the researchers were able to map the detailed structure of a section of the Issyk-Ata fault, Kyrgzstan, which runs along the border of the capital city, Bishkek. More specifically, it could allow researchers to better predict potential earthquakes and prepare for the future. This is extremely important as populations of people expand, creating more risk.

The findings are published in the journal Geophysical Journal International.