Nature & Environment
Lightning Strikes to Increase in the United States by 50 Percent Due to Climate Change (VIDEO)
Catherine Griffin
First Posted: Nov 14, 2014 07:01 AM EST
Climate change may not only change temperatures; it may also increase lightning strikes. With today's climate models, scientists have predicted a 50 percent increase in lightning strikes across the United States during this century as the result of warming temperatures.
"With warming, thunderstorms become more explosive," said David Romps, one of the researchers, in a news release. "This has to do with water vapor, which is the fuel for explosive deep convections in the atmosphere. Warming causes there to be more water vapor in the atmosphere, and if you have more fuel lying around, when you get ignition, it can go big time."
Previous studies have shown that changes in lightning are associated with seasonal or year-to-year variations in temperature. Yet there have been no reliable analyses to show what the future may hold for lightning-until now. The scientists predicted that precipitations and cloud buoyancy together might predict lightning strikes. More specifically, they examined data from 2011 to see if there was a correlation.
"Lightning is caused by change separations within clouds, and to maximize charge separation, you have to loft more water vapor and heavy ice particles into the atmosphere," said Romps. "We already know that the faster the updrafts, the more lightning, and the more precipitation, the more lightning."
In the end, the researchers found that 77 percent of the variations in lightning strikes could be prediction from knowing about precipitation and CAPE , convective available potential energy. Then, they looked at 11 different climate models that predict precipitation and CAPE through this century. These models predicted an 11 percent increase in CAPE in the U.S. per degree Celsius rise in global average temperature by the end of the 21st century. This, in turn, means there's a 12 percent rise in cloud-to-ground lightning strikes per degree, which is roughly a 50 percent increase by 2100.
The findings reveal that when it comes to climate change, it's not just the temperatures we should be monitoring. Other factors also change as things heat up. Currently, the scientists plan to look at the distribution of lightning-strike increases around the U.S.
The findings are published in the journal Science.
Want to learn more? Check out the video below, courtesy of YouTube.
See Now:
NASA's Juno Spacecraft's Rendezvous With Jupiter's Mammoth Cyclone
TagsLightning, Climate Change ©2024 ScienceWorldReport.com All rights reserved. Do not reproduce without permission. The window to the world of science news.
More on SCIENCEwr
First Posted: Nov 14, 2014 07:01 AM EST
Climate change may not only change temperatures; it may also increase lightning strikes. With today's climate models, scientists have predicted a 50 percent increase in lightning strikes across the United States during this century as the result of warming temperatures.
"With warming, thunderstorms become more explosive," said David Romps, one of the researchers, in a news release. "This has to do with water vapor, which is the fuel for explosive deep convections in the atmosphere. Warming causes there to be more water vapor in the atmosphere, and if you have more fuel lying around, when you get ignition, it can go big time."
Previous studies have shown that changes in lightning are associated with seasonal or year-to-year variations in temperature. Yet there have been no reliable analyses to show what the future may hold for lightning-until now. The scientists predicted that precipitations and cloud buoyancy together might predict lightning strikes. More specifically, they examined data from 2011 to see if there was a correlation.
"Lightning is caused by change separations within clouds, and to maximize charge separation, you have to loft more water vapor and heavy ice particles into the atmosphere," said Romps. "We already know that the faster the updrafts, the more lightning, and the more precipitation, the more lightning."
In the end, the researchers found that 77 percent of the variations in lightning strikes could be prediction from knowing about precipitation and CAPE , convective available potential energy. Then, they looked at 11 different climate models that predict precipitation and CAPE through this century. These models predicted an 11 percent increase in CAPE in the U.S. per degree Celsius rise in global average temperature by the end of the 21st century. This, in turn, means there's a 12 percent rise in cloud-to-ground lightning strikes per degree, which is roughly a 50 percent increase by 2100.
The findings reveal that when it comes to climate change, it's not just the temperatures we should be monitoring. Other factors also change as things heat up. Currently, the scientists plan to look at the distribution of lightning-strike increases around the U.S.
The findings are published in the journal Science.
Want to learn more? Check out the video below, courtesy of YouTube.
See Now: NASA's Juno Spacecraft's Rendezvous With Jupiter's Mammoth Cyclone