New Jersey May Face Unprecedented Flooding from Sea Level Rise by Mid-Century

As sea levels rise, coastal areas are becoming more susceptible to flooding--and New Jersey is no exception. Scientists have found that the New Jersey shore will likely experience a sea level rise of about 1.5 feet by 2050 and 3.5 feet by 2100. That's 11 to 15 inches higher than the global average over the century.

Rising sea levels are only the beginning. What's truly worrisome is the fact that higher seas could mean the flooding from storms could become more frequent and more devastating. In fact, scientists estimate that by the middle of the century the one-in-10 year flood level at Atlantic City would exceed any flood known there from the observational record, including Superstorm Sandy.

"It's clear from both the tide gauge and geological records that sea level has been rising in the mid-Atlantic region at a foot per century as a result of global average sea-level rise and the solid earth's ongoing adjustment to the end of the last ice age," said Ken Miller, one of the researchers, in a news release. "In the sands of the New Jersey coastal plain, sea level is also rising by another four inches per century because of sediment compaction--due partly to natural forces and partly to groundwater withdrawal. But the rate of sea-level rise, globally and regionally, is increasing due to melting of ice sheets and the warming of the oceans."

Yet it's not just these factors that will cause sea level rise. Ocean dynamics will also contribute. Most ocean models predict that the Gulf Stream will weaken as a result of climate change; this will cause as much as a foot of additional sea level rise over this century. Needless to say, this could be devastating for coastal regions. If the Gulf Stream is sensitive enough, the shoreline could experience as much as 2.3 feet of sea level rise by mid-century and 5.9 feet by the end of the century.

"The geological sea level records show that it's extremely likely that sea level in New Jersey was rising faster in the 20^th century than in any century in the last 4300 years," said Andrew Kemp, one of the researchers, in a news release.

The findings reveal the importance of preparing for future storms as sea levels rise. Occurrences like Superstorm Sandy could devastate coastal regions as they become more frequent; this, in turn, could cause billions of dollars-worth of damages over time.

The findings are published in the journal Earth's Future.