Europe May Face Devastating Drought from Climate Change

Europe may be experiencing high precipitation and storms today, but they may be suffering from the opposite end of the spectrum by the end of this century. Scientists have discovered that droughts in Europe will be more intense and frequent due to climate change and increased water use.

Drought is a major natural disaster. In fact, in Europe alone the cost of drought over the past three decades has amounted to over 100 billion euros. This makes understanding and predicting drought crucial for preparation purposes.

In order to better understand environmental conditions in the future, the researchers analyzed climate and hydrological models under different scenarios. They then used these projected conditions to drive a hydrological model that mimics the distribution and flow of water on Earth. The scientists then ran the model until 2100 for all river basins in Europe. This allowed them to evaluate how drought conditions might change in magnitude and severity over the 21^st century.

"Our research shows that many river basins, especially in southern parts of Europe, are likely to become more prone to periods of reduced water supply due to climate change," said Giovanni Forzieri, one of the researchers, in a news release. "An increasing demand for water, following a growing population and intensive use of water for irrigation and industry, will result in even stronger reductions in river flow levels."

The researchers found that southern parts of Europe will be the most affected. Stream and river minimum flow levels may be lowered by as much as 40 percent, and periods of water deficiency may increase up to 80 percent due to climate change alone in the Iberian Peninsula, south of France, Italy and the Balkans.

"The results of this study emphasize the urgency of sustainable water resource management that is able to adapt to these potential changes in the hydrological system to minimize the negative socio-economic and environmental impacts," said Forzieri in a news release.

The findings are published in the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences.