Scientists Identify Regions that are Most Vulnerable to Climate Change

Although climate change is likely to impact the entire world in one form or other, some areas will probably experience more drastic changes than others. Now, scientists have identified areas of the Earth that are high priorities for conservation in the face of climate change, and have discovered that Europe may be particularly vulnerable.

Europe has the lowest fraction of its land area, only four percent, of any continent in "refugia." Refugia are areas of biological diversity that support many species where natural environmental conditions remain relatively constant during times of great environmental change. For example, the biggest refugia are in the Amazon, the Congo basin, the boreal forests of Russia and the Australian outback.

In order to better understand which areas were most or least at risk, the researchers examined natural habitat present and the risk that regions shift to a different type of natural vegetation due to climate change, which is known as "biome shift."

So what did they find? It turns out that 10 to 28 percent of the world is located in potential refugia or areas that are left vulnerable to future climate change and biome shift. That said, only one or two percent of the world' vegetated area is classified as refugia and protected by a national park or other protected area. This means that conservations may want to create more protected areas where these refugia are located.

Europe is vulnerable in particular. This is not only because of its low fraction of refugia, but also because the refugia that do exist are mostly located in Scandinavia and Scotland.

"Our research will help governments to better understand where to invest resources to safeguard wild plants and animals in the face of the combined threats of habitat destruction and climate change," said Felix Eigenbrod, one of the researchers, in a news release.

The findings are published in the journal Global Change Biology.