Majority of Threatened African Amphibians May be 'Invisible' Under Climate Change

It turns out that the majority of threatened species are "invisible" when using modern methods to predict species distributions under climate change. This is especially true when it comes to African amphibians, many of which are under the threat of extinction.

"Modern methods predict species distributions under climate change typically leave out rare and threatened species-the ones that currently underpin global spending on conservation," said Philip Platts, lead author of the new study, in a news release. "This is because those species, almost by definition, have too few data for their spatial distributions to be modeled using standard tools. We looked at whether missing them out makes a difference for conservation priority setting, either now or under future climates."

The researchers examined data on 733 African amphibians in Sub-Saharan Africa. The found that a total of 400 of the species have too few records to be used in species distribution modeling at continental scales. This included 92 percent of those listed as vulnerable, endangered or critically endangered on the IUCN Red List.

In the end, the scientists found that under the current climate, statistical restrictions on species distribution modeling means that important sites for narrow-ranging and threatened species are systematically downplayed. This particular issue spans many species and is only partially mitigated by modeling at finer spatial scales. Not only that, but when it comes to climate change in the future, persistence among both narrow and wide-ranging species is likely to be highest in sites already identified for conservation investment.

"Effective biodiversity conservation, both now and in the future, relies on our ability to assess patterns of threat across all species, but particularly those close to extinction," said Raquel Garcia, one of the researchers. "There are ways around the problem, such as combining simple measures of exposure to climate change with knowledge of species' ability to disperse or adapt-methods less reliant on sophisticated modeling tools, which are impractical for many of the rarest species."

The findings reveal that unless scientists use appropriate analysis for the impacts of climate change on species, they risk leaving many rare species underrepresented in conservation plans. It shows the importance of taking these factors into account when guiding conservation efforts.

The findings are published in the journal Diversity and Distributions.