England May Experience 13-Fold increase in Record-Breaking Warm Years

As the climate changes, regions across the globe are being impacted by heat and drought. Now, scientists have discovered that the likelihood of record-breaking warm years in England may substantially increase due to human-caused climate change.

In order to better understand what sort of temperatures England might be impacted by in the future, the researchers used climate simulations. This allowed them to calculate the likelihood of very warm years when there are just natural impacts on the climate and no human influence. Then, the scientists calculated the same with human influence and calculated the likelihood of warm years due to human influence.

So what did they find? It turns out that there was a 13-fold increase in the amount of warm years due to human influences on the climate. The observation-based approach suggested at least a 22-fold increase in the probability of very warm years in the climate today compared with the climate of a century ago.

"When you look at average annual temperatures over larger regions of the world, such as the whole of Europe, there is a lower variability in temperatures from year to year compared with smaller areas," said Andrew King, the lead author of the new study, in a news release. "As a result of this low variability, it is easier to spot anomalies. This is why larger regions tend to produce stronger attribution statements, so it is remarkable that we get such a clear anthropogenic influence on temperatures in a relatively small area across central England."

The findings reveal that England may be in for some warmer years in the coming years. As climate change continues, regions may need to make preparations to deal with the new climate conditions.

The findings are published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

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