United States' Exposure to Extreme Heat May Increase Four to Six Times by Mid-Century

Get ready for summer and while you're at it, get ready for heat waves. Scientists have found that the United States could experience a four- to six-fold increase in exposure to extreme heat by mid-century.

"Both populations change and climate change matter," said Brian O'Neill, co-author of the new study, in a news release. "If you want to know how heat waves will affect health in the future, you have to consider both."

In this latest study, the researchers used 11 different high-resolution simulations of future temperatures across the United States between 2041 and 2070. They assumed there would be no major reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and the simulations were produced with a suite of global and regional climate models as part of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program.

The researchers also studied how the U.S. population is expected to grow and shift regionally during the same time period, assuming current migration trends within the country continue. Total exposure to extreme heat was calculated in "person-days" by multiplying the number of days when the temperature is expected to hit at least 95 degrees by the number of people who are projected to live in the areas where extreme heat is occurring.

So what did they find? It turns out that the total exposure to extreme heat annually is expected to be between 10 and 14 billion person-days compared to the current average of 2.3 billion person-days.

"There has been so much written regarding the potential impacts of climate change, particularly as they relate to physical climate extremes," said Bryan Jones, lead author of the new study. "However, it is how people experience these extremes that will ultimately shape the broader public perception of climate change."

The findings are published in the journal Nature Climate Change

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