Is It Possible to Limit Global Warming by 2100 to Less than 1.5 Degrees Celsius?

That's a good question and now, scientists may have the answer. It turns that that it is possible-at least from a purely technological standpoint.

"Actions for returning global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 are in many ways similar to those limiting warming to below 2 degrees Celsius," said Joeri Rogelj, one of the lead authors of the new study, in a news release. "However the more ambitious 1.5 degrees Celsius goal leaves no space to further delay global mitigation action and emission reductions need to scale up swiftly in the next decades."

In this latest study, the researchers identified key elements that would need to be in place in order to reach the 1.5 degrees Celsius target by 2100. One fundamental feature, though, is the tight constraint on future carbon emissions.

"In 1.5 degrees Celsius scenarios, the remaining carbon budget for the 21^st century is reduced to almost half compared to two-degrees Celsius scenarios," said Gunnar Luderer, co-leader of the new study. "As a consequence, deeper emissions cuts are required from all sectors, and global carbon neutrality would need to be reached 10 to 20 years earlier than project for two-degree Celsius scenarios."

A key enabling factor for the target is energy efficiency. In addition, all of the scenarios show that at some point in this century, carbon emissions would have to become negative at a global scale. This means that significant amounts of carbon dioxide need to be actively removed from the atmosphere.

"The 1.5 degree target leaves very little leeway," said Luderer. "Any imperfections-be it a further delay of meaningful policy actions, or a failure to achieve negative emissions at large scale-will make the 1.5 degree target unattainable during this century."

The findings are published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

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