Climate Change: Wealthy Countries May be at Risk of More Flooding in the Future

In these modern times, wealthy countries can partially counteract flooding with vulnerability-reducing investments. Now, though, researchers have found that these mitigation strategies may not work in the long-term for delta flooding.

In order to calculate a delta population's risk of flooding, the researchers had to account for the population's probability of a damage-producing event. They also had to calculate how the population's exposure to these hazards may change over time due to a shifting climate.

The researchers applied their calculations to 48 major coastal deltas in all. These spanned a range of climate and socioeconomic contests, with a total estimated current populations of more than 340 million people.

So what did they find? Even though deltas in wealthier countries, such as the Mississippi and Rhine deltas, had similar probability of flooding events and rates of exposure over time compared to other deltas, their resulting risk levels were much more stable. In fact, their risk trends were among the lowest of all the deltas in the study. However, when the researchers re-calculated the risks over time, taking into account long-term rising infrastructure costs, these deltas had the greatest increases in vulnerability.

The researchers believe that investments that manage the drivers behind human-caused delta degradation may be necessary to sustain deltas in the long-term. This is especially important to note when considering sea-level rise in the future.

The findings show that it's also not just poorer countries at risk. It seems that even wealthy nations may be in trouble when it comes to flooding in the future if actions aren't taken.

The findings are published in the journal Science.

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