Climate Change: New Map Reveals the Cost of Flooding Around Estuaries

Communities around estuaries may be in for some financial troubles. Scientists have created a new visualization tool to predict the maximum cost of coastal flooding to communities around estuaries.

The new method works by combining high impact flooding scenarios with land use maps. They combined a model for flood inundation with one that simulates the effect of waves. This made it possible to estimate how likely it is that sea defenses will be "over-topped" in a changing climate.

The researchers examined the threshold for a plausible amount of sea-level rise by 2100. The highest recorded river level was added to the model to give a "worst-case scenario" of flooding for communities around estuaries.

"By showing how high the flood water could rise in terms of brick courses, and providing a corresponding estimate of economic damage, these maps can help residents see the impact of low probability flooding scenarios," said Thomas Prime, lead researcher of the new study, in a news release.

The new maps show which areas are most at risk for rising water levels. More specifically, it shows what the economic cost might be in the future. This is extremely important when it comes to preparing for the future. Communities can increase their resilience to climate change and rising sea levels by taking precautions today.

"This work leverages the expertise in marine hazards from across NOC, and our external collaborators, to assess flood risk to a coastal community from extreme waves, water levels and projected rises in sea level," said Jenny Brown, co-author of the new study.

The findings are published in the journal PLOS One.

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