Anarctic Ice Sheet Melting May be Speeding Up, Doubling by 2050

The melting occurring in the Antarctic may be speeding up. Scientists have projected a doubling of surface melting of Antarctic ice shelves by 2050.

In this latest study, the researchers combined satellite observations of ice surface melting with climate model simulations under scenarios of intermediate and high levels of greenhouse gas emissions until the year 2100.

"Our results illustrate just how rapidly melting in Antarctica can intensify in a warming climate," said Luke Trusel, lead author of the new study, in a news release. "This has already occurred in places like the Antarctic Peninsula where we've observed warming and abrupt ice shelf collapses in the last few decades. Our model projections show that similar levels of melt may occur across coastal Antarctica near the end of this century, raising concerns about future ice shelf stability."

The findings actually indicate a strong potential for the possibility of Antarctica-wide ice sheet surface melting by 2050, under either emissions scenario. However, between 2050 and 2100, the models reveal a significant divergence between the two scenarios. Under the high-emissions climate scenario, by 2100 ice sheet surface melting approaches or exceeds intensities associated with ice shelf collapse in the past. With reduced-emissions scenario, there is relatively little increase in ice sheet melting after the doubling in 2050.

"The data presented in this study clearly show that climate policy, and therefore the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions over the coming century, have an enormous control over the future fate of surface melting of Antarctic ice shelves, which we must consider when assessing their long-term stability and potential indirect contributions to sea level rise," said Karen Frey, one of the researchers.

The findings are published in the journal Nature Geoscience.

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