Climate Change: Global Sea Level Rise May be Locked In with 2 Degrees of Warming

It turns out that a mere 2 degrees Celsius of warming may lock in global sea level rise for thousands of years. Scientists have found that a jump in global average temperatures of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius may cause the Antarctic ice shelves to collapse.

In this latest study, the researchers used state-of-the-art computer modeling to simulate the ice-sheet's response to a warming climate under a range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios. They found that in all but one scenario, which included significantly reduced emissions beyond 2020, large parts of the Antarctic ice sheet were lost, which resulted in a huge increase in global sea levels.

"The long reaction time of the Antarctic ice sheet-which can take thousands of years to full manifest its response to changes in environmental conditions-coupled with the fact that CO2 lingers in the atmosphere for a very long time means that the warming we generate now will affect the ice sheet in ways that will be incredibly hard to undo," said Nicholas Golledge, one of the researchers, in a news release.

The predictions may seem a bit extreme, but researchers say that that isn't so. These new predictions, unlike old ones, incorporate what happens when ice sheets come into contact with the ocean.

"About 93 percent of the heat from anthropogenic global warming has gone into the ocean, and these warming ocean waters are now coming into contact with the floating margins of the Antarctic ice sheet, known as ice shelves," said Tim Nalsh, one of the researchers. "If we lose these ice shelves, the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise by 2100 will be nearer 40 centimeters."

The findings reveal a bit more about what might be in store in the future. More specifically, they show how efforts need to be ramped up to help curtail warming temperatures.

The findings are published in the journal Nature.

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