Severe Droughts and Flooding in California May Double by 2100

California may be experience double the amount of severe droughts and floods later this century. The weather patterns El Niño and La Niña could play havoc on local ecosystems in the region.

"Wet and dry years in California are linked to El Niño and La Niña," said Jin-Ho Yoon, one of the researchers, in a news release. "That relationship is getting stronger. Our study shows that ENSO will be exhibiting increasing control over California weather."

Currently, California is experiencing one of the most severe droughts in its history. However, it's not clear if a warmer world will make droughts worse, more frequent or perhaps even improve the situation. Since warmer air can hold more water, it's possible that rainfall could increase.

With that said, research suggests future rain will come down more as light drizzles and heavy deluges rather than moderate rainfall. That's why scientists took a closer look at droughts to see if they might follow a similar pattern.

The researchers looked at what might happen to California in global climate models. They simulated two periods of time: 1920 to 2005 using historical measurements and 2006 to 2080 using conditions in which very few efforts are made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. They chose this future scenario in particular to examine the most extreme case.

So what did they find? The models showed that in the future, California seasons will exhibit more excessively wet and excessively dry events. These results suggest that the frequency of droughts could double and floods could triple between the early 20^th century and the late 21^st century. This could particularly be due to ENSO, which occurs every two to seven years.

While climate changes naturally, it seems as if greenhouse gases are amplifying thee changes. It's more important than ever to take greenhouse gas reductions into account when considering our future climate.

The findings are published in the journal Nature Communications.

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