Climate Change Commitments Aim for 3 Degree Rise in Temperatures

While previously the world had aimed for just a 2-degree rise in temperature, now it appears as if countries are aiming for 3 degrees. Current climate commitments submitted by 155 countries for COP21 would increase global temperatures around 3 degrees Celsius.

A total of 155 countries representing about 90 percent of global emissions have submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) on climate policy to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in preparation for the new climate negotiations to be held in December in Paris.

If aggregated and fully implemented, the unconditional INDCs could set global emissions growth about about 17 percent above 2010 level by 2030. But when considering unconditional and conditional INDCs combined, global emissions could peak shortly before 2030 at 12 percent above 2010 level. Assuming countries would keep on their efforts after 2030, these could limit the long term temperature increase to about 3 degrees Celsius.

The findings show that when it comes to greenhouse gas emissions, we may be in for a warm spell. More specifically, it shows that when it comes to climate change, we could experience more in terms of sea level rise and other climate shifts than first anticipated with a lower rate of global warming.

The analysis was presented in the form of a policy brief as background information at the October preparatory meeting INDC Forum in Rabat.

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