Sea Level Rise from Collapsing Antarctic Ice May Not be as Serious as Once Thought

Antarctic ice melt may not have as much of an impact on sea level rise as first thought. While an Antarctic ice sheet collapse will have serious consequences over the next 200 years, it won't be as much as some have suggested.

In this latest study, the researchers used an ice-sheet model to predict the consequences of unstable retreat of the ice, which recent studies suggest has begun in West Antarctica. Scientists predict that the contribution is most likely to be 10 cm of sea-level rise this century under a mid to high climate scenario, but is extremely unlikely to be higher than 30 cm. When combined with other contributions, that's a significant challenge for adapting to future sea level rise. However, it's also far lower from some previous estimates.

With that said, the study's central estimate raises the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) central prediction of 60 cm global sea-level rise by just a few centimeters. This is because the new study factors in the likelihood of sea-level rise from substantial parts of the ice sheet collapsing, which is relatively new evidence.

"Our method is more comprehensive than previous estimates, because it has more exploration of uncertainty than previous model predictions and more physics than those based on extrapolation or expert judgement," said Tamsin Edwards, one of the researchers, in a news release.

The findings reveal that sea level rise will be an issue in the future. However, it's not as extreme as some predictions have dictated in the past. It's important to take steps now, though, in order to prepare for this rise.

The findings are published in the journal Nature.

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