Extreme Heat Waves May Impact Europe in the Next Few Years

Europe may be in for more heat waves as climate change continues. Scientists have found that regional climate projections suggest enhanced probability of heatwaves anywhere in Europe.

In this latest study, the researchers used the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId), which allows comparison of events over space and time. The researchers estimate the magnitude and probability of occurrence of extreme heatwaves in the near-term.

The new analysis reveals that all previous records were broken in 2010 in Russia as the heatwave exceeded both night and day records in the extent of territory covered, average peak and duration. In fact, the spatial extent and the spatial HWMId maximum were about twice as high as those of the heatwave in central Europe in 2003 and in Finland in 1972.

Nearly all of the models showed that a heatwave like the one in central Europe in 2003 occurs at least once in 30 years under two of the four climate scenarios used by the IPCC. More specifically, the scenarios show a rise in heat waves in general, which could mean that the region may need to prepare for warmer temperatures in the future if climate change continues unabated.

The findings are published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

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