Climate Change: Alaska Permafrost at Risk of a Major Meltdown by 2100

Alaska may be in for some major melting in the future. Scientists have used statistically modeled maps to project that permafrost that underlies about 38 percent of boreal and arctic Alaska will be reduced by 16 to 24 percent by the end of the 21^st century under climate scenarios.

Northern latitude tundra and boreal forests are experiencing an accelerated warming trend that is greater than in other parts of the world. This warming trend degrades permafrost, which is ground that stays below freezing for at least two consecutive years. Some of the adverse impacts of melting permafrost are changing pathways of ground and surface water, interruptions of regional transportation, and the release of previously stored carbon.

"A warming climate is affecting the Arctic in the most complex ways," said Virginia Burkett, one of the researchers, in a news release. "Understanding the current distribution of permafrost and estimating where it is likely to disappear are key factors in predicting the future responses of northern ecosystems to climate change."

The researchers developed maps of maximum thaw depth and provided uncertainty estimates. They also created permafrost distribution probabilities on the map.

So what did they find? It turns out that Alaska may experience some major melting by 2100. This is particularly important to note since the released carbon can create a feedback loop which causes even more warming.

The findings are published in the journal Remote Sensing of Environment.

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