Your Christmas Tree at Risk? Evergreens May be Killed by 2100 in the Southwest

Your Christmas tree may be at risk in the future. Scientists have found that evergreen trees may experience widespread death by 2100 due to climate change.

In this latest study, the researchers looked at the Southwest U.S., which is a semi-arid region that includes Arizona and parts of New Mexico, California, Colorado, Utah and Texas. It's home to 11 national forests spanning more than 20 acres in Arizona and New Mexico alone.

Loss of broad-scale forest cover over the Southwest could contribute additional carbon to the atmosphere, creating additional warming. This is because trees and understory vegetation, such as shrubs and bushes, sequester carbon from the atmosphere. Less vegetation means less carbon capture, which can create a negative feedback loop that can accelerate climate change.

The researchers studied numerous models of plants in this region over time. After averaging the models together, the scientists found that about 72 percent of the region's evergreen forests would die out by 2050. In addition, nearly 100 percent would die out by 2100 in the Southwest U.S.

While each simulation provided different precipitation patterns, the climate model findings were always the same: widespread tree death.

"No matter how we investigated the problem, we got the same result," said Sara Rauscher, one of the researchers, in a news release. "This consensus gives us confidence in this projection of forest mortality."

The findings reveal a bit more about the future of evergreen trees. This is especially important to take into account when examining climate change and its effects.

The findings are published in the journal Nature Climate Change. 

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