Severe Precipitation Expected To Worsen If Global Warming Continues

Severe storm systems and downpours could happen almost three times as often and with a 70 percent increase in intensity in the United States if climate change continues, a new study found.

Extreme rainfall, or severe precipitation, like the one that flooded Louisiana, West Virginia and Houston earlier this year, could happen more often by the end of the century in the United States. According to a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, such storms could be especially common in parts of the Gulf Coast, Atlantic Coast and the Southwest.

"These are huge increases," Andreas Prein, lead author of the study, said in a press release by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

"Imagine the most intense thunderstorm you typically experience in a single season. Our study finds that, in the future, parts of the U.S. could expect to experience five of those storms in a season, each with an intensity as strong or stronger than current storms," he added.

The Effects Of Global Warming

Scientists have long known that when the atmosphere warms, it has the ability to hold more water. A wetter atmosphere is expected to produce heavier rain. The scientists said that there has already been an increase in precipitation intensity across all states in the U.S., the Denver Post reports.

To land to the findings of the study, the researchers used a new data set that was created when NCAR scientists ran the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at a resolution of 4 kilometers. This resolution is fine enough to stimulate and study individuals storms.

They analyzed how storms happened from 2000 to 2013 and how these storms changed if they existed in a climate that was 5 degrees Celsius hotter. This is the estimated increase in temperature by the end of the century if carbon emissions will not be controlled and curbed.

What They Found

The researchers found that the rate of storms occurring during summer will increase across the nation. However, it will vary in various regions. For instance, the Midwest will have an increase of 0 to 100 percent. On the other hand, the Gulf Cost, Louisiana, Texas, Alabama and Mexico will see an increase of 200 to more than 400 percent.

Aside from these, the intensity of these rainfall events will increase. In some areas, it could increase to more than 70 percent.

"Understanding how climate change may affect the environments that produce the most intense storms is essential because of the significant impacts that these kinds of storms have on society," Prein said.